Will welfare bill go through? Pippa Crerar on latest state of play
This is from Pippa Crerar, the Guardian’s political editor, with her latest take on the state of play ahead of the start of the debate on the UC and Pip bill.
Meg Hillier, who tabled the original wrecking amendment to welfare bill, confirms she’ll now vote for it.
“I’ve not always been happy about how No 10 has engaged with MPs in general, but on this they acted in good faith: listened, made an offer and honoured it,” she tells @guardian
Her view reflects that of a chunk of former rebels, while others say they’ll hold their noses to back it at second reading, and try to tweak at later stages.
Of those who’ve already decided to vote against, around 40 have signed Rachel Maskell’s new amendment. Rebel leaders say others are expected to join them in voting lobbies, but not to sign.
But many MPs are yet to make up their minds, and want to hear what Liz Kendall has to say today, after despatch box appearance y’day which made things worse.
Some of them are considering abstaining – which could upend the parliamentary maths. But they’re haunted by criticism of Labour MP who followed Harriet Harman’s whip in 2015 and didn’t vote against Tory welfare bill (they abstained).
“People are in turmoil,” one Labour MP tells me. At this stage, it feels like the government will get its welfare bill through second reading. Just. But it’s not in the bag and today will make all the difference.
Key events
Reeves insists government committed to cutting number of sick and disabled people in poverty
Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, has defended the government’s record on support for sick and disabled people.
Speaking during Treasury questions in response to a question from Rachael Maskell, who has tabled what is now the Labour reasoned amendment to kill off the bill (see 9.08am and 9.22am), Reeves said:
The government is committed to ensuring that there are fewer sick and disabled people in poverty by helping them into work and getting them off NHS waiting lists.
That is why at the spring statement, we announced the largest investment in employment support in at least a generation. The government has already taken action to tackle poverty including with the fair repayment rate, which lowers the cap on deductions in universal credit.
And we’ve increased the national living wage by 6.7%.
Beyond this, we’re investing to reduce poverty by expanding free school meals, investing in a £1bn settlement for crisis support, and we’ll be setting out our child poverty strategy in the autumn. We’ve invested £29bn in reducing NHS waiting lists, and since taking office, there are 385,000 more people in work.
Rachel Reeves is taking Treasury questions in the Commons until 12.30pm. At that point Jonathan Reynolds, business secretary, will make a statement on his plans for a review of parental leave. That means the debate on the UC and Pip bill will start around 1.30pm. And it will run until 7pm.
Will welfare bill go through? Pippa Crerar on latest state of play
This is from Pippa Crerar, the Guardian’s political editor, with her latest take on the state of play ahead of the start of the debate on the UC and Pip bill.
Meg Hillier, who tabled the original wrecking amendment to welfare bill, confirms she’ll now vote for it.
“I’ve not always been happy about how No 10 has engaged with MPs in general, but on this they acted in good faith: listened, made an offer and honoured it,” she tells @guardian
Her view reflects that of a chunk of former rebels, while others say they’ll hold their noses to back it at second reading, and try to tweak at later stages.
Of those who’ve already decided to vote against, around 40 have signed Rachel Maskell’s new amendment. Rebel leaders say others are expected to join them in voting lobbies, but not to sign.
But many MPs are yet to make up their minds, and want to hear what Liz Kendall has to say today, after despatch box appearance y’day which made things worse.
Some of them are considering abstaining – which could upend the parliamentary maths. But they’re haunted by criticism of Labour MP who followed Harriet Harman’s whip in 2015 and didn’t vote against Tory welfare bill (they abstained).
“People are in turmoil,” one Labour MP tells me. At this stage, it feels like the government will get its welfare bill through second reading. Just. But it’s not in the bag and today will make all the difference.
Here is a Westminster creature associated with cunning, guile and ruthlessness. And there is a fox in the picture too, being sized up by the government chief whip, Alan Campbell, as he left Downing Street after cabinet this morning.
Will Starmer’s rebellion over plans to cut sickness benefit match what happened when Blair tried the same in 1999
The vote tonight is likely to set some sort of record – if only for the biggest parliamentary rebellion during Keir Starmer’s first year in office. Philip Cowley, the politics professor and expert on Commons voting, has compiled this list of previous benchmarks to provide some benchmarks against which tonight’s revolt can be judged. He says:
16 – is the largest backbench rebellion Starmer’s whips have seen so far, earlier this month during the passage of the planning and infrastructure bill.
47 – was the largest rebellion in Tony Blair’s first year, over lone parent benefit.
67 – was the largest rebellion in Tony Blair’s first parliament, over incapacity benefit.
72 – is the largest rebellion by Labour MP at the second reading of their governments’ bills, a record shared by votes in 1947 (national service) and 2004 (university fees)
91 – is both the largest rebellion in the first year of any government since the war (a 1975 vote over the civil list) and the largest rebellion by government MPs at the second reading of any bill since 1945 (House of Lords reform, in 2012)
139 – is the largest backbench rebellion of any governing party since the Corn Laws (Iraq, 2003)
In terms of subject matter, the Blair-era revolts over incapacity benefit reform were closest to what is happening today. Incapacity benefit was a sickness benefit that was replaced by employment and support allowance, which now for some claimants has been replaced by universal credit – covered by today’s bill. Here is the Guardian report of the vote where 67 Labour MPs rebelled against Tony Blair in May 1999.
That revolt carried on into the autumn of 1999. Here is another report from the time about Blair’s efforts to reform incapacity benefit. You will see that a lot of the arguments have echoes of what is happening today.
Compass, the leftwing group urging Labour to be more pluralistic, has put out a statement condemning the UC and Pip bill. Its director, Neal Lawson, said:
If your own friends are telling you to put the brakes on, then something has clearly gone wrong. Despite the government’s line, this legislation does not advance Labour values. It is fundamentally at odds with them, and with the views of the mainstream of the party and civil society.”
MPs from across the House, and especially the Labour side, must back Rachael Maskell’s reasoned amendment. This bill’s creation of a three-tiered social security system would condemn thousands to poverty and could lose Labour the next election.
Ellen Morrison is the representative for disabled Labour members on the party’s national executive committee. In an article for LabourList, she says the process leading up to today’s vote on the UC and Pip bill has been a “complete disaster” and she urges MPs to vote it down. She says:
A bill of this magnitude should have been co-produced with disabled people and our organisations from the very start.
Now, ministers scramble to promise ‘consultation’ as one small part of the process. That is too little, too late. Co-production is not a rushed tick-box exercise tagged onto legislation already steaming through Parliament. It means disabled people shaping the system at every step – not just commenting on the detail of changes already baked in.
Importantly, it is not appropriate for MPs to vote on something so rushed, without all the information available. The full impact of these policies – particularly the recent ‘concessions’ – needs sufficient time for scrutiny. That takes far longer than a weekend to consider.
One of the concessions offered by the government to Labour rebels opposed to the UC and Pip bill was the publication of the terms of reference for the review of the Pip assessment process it promised in March. These implied the review will be more extensive than originally thought. And it will be “co-produced” with disabled people, the government said.
But groups representing the disabled are sceptical. Six of them –Disabled People Against Cuts, Mad Youth Organise, Disability Rights UK, National Survivor User Network, Crips Against Cuts and Taking the PIP – have issued a joint statement urging MPs to reject the bill. They say:
After being forced to commit to several so-called “concessions” to their welfare bill, the government is now desperately trying to make these cruel cuts more palatable by pointing to a forthcoming review of the Pip process, which they say will be “co-produced” with disabled people and organisations.
We refuse to see the language of co-production being co-opted – as is often the case – to describe the involvement of people with lived experience in policy and service design without giving us any real power to influence outcomes. The government have made it very clear that they are intent on slashing the support that so many disabled people rely on to work and live independently, no matter how many disabled people tell them what a harmful policy this will be.
Ministers launch review of UK parental leave and pay to ‘reset system’
Ministers have launched a review of parental leave and pay as Labour considers ways to make paternity leave and unpaid parental leave day-one rights, Aletha Adu reports.
Commenting on the review this morning, Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary, said:
It’s been decades since there’s been a comprehensive review of parental leave in the UK. I recognise it’s got to be proportionate. We’ve got to have the business voice as part of that, but I think what we have at the minute, there are eight different types of parental leave – it’s confusing, even for businesses. They don’t know what they should be offering or what they need to be doing.
Kemi Badenoch has confirmed that the Conservative party will vote against the UC and Pip bill tonight. She posted this on social media last night.
The welfare budget’s spiralling-from £40bn pre-Covid to £100bn by 2030.
We challenged Labour to cut spending, get people into work & rule out tax rises. Starmer has failed on all counts, and the welfare bill is still set to rise.
We’re voting against his Welfare Bill tomorrow.
The Tories were always expected to vote against. They said they would support the bill if it met three conditions but since two of these were ones that Labour would not agree to (cutting welfare spending overall, and ruling out tax rises in the budget), the offer of support was never very sincere.
Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary, was in the TV and radio studios this morning defending the welfare bill. This is what he said to BBC Breakfast about why Labour MPs should back the government.
I simply ask colleagues to read the proposals, compare them to what we have, and I think they’re genuinely better. I absolutely do believe that they protect the most vulnerable people, which is exactly what people, I think, wanted from these reforms. They recognise we’re spending a lot of money and no one’s happy with the existing system, and that we can make those improvements and how the system works in the here and now and for the future are improved by these proposals.
I’ll also say, look, if you, if you ignore these difficult issues, I know they’re difficult for colleagues, just think back to where the Conservative party was who didn’t do anything. We need to reform the system.
Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA
Leading Labour rebel backs welfare bill amid sustained defiance
Downing Street has “listened” and “honoured” the promises it made on changes to the welfare bill, one of the key rebels, Meg Hillier, has said, saying she would vote for the bill later today. Jessica Elgot has the story.
Text of Rachael Maskell’s reasoned amendment backed by rebel Labour MPs to kill off welfare bill
Here is the full text of Rachael Maskell’s reasoned amendment to kill the UC and Pip bill (see 9.08am), which has been signed by 39 Labour MPs.
That this house, whilst noting the need for the reform of the social security system, and agreeing with the government’s principles for providing support to people into work and protecting people who cannot work, declines to give a second reading to the universal credit and personal independent payment bill because its provisions have not been subject to a formal consultation with disabled people, or co-produced with them, or their carers; because the Office for Budget Responsibility is not due to publish its analysis of the employment impact of these reforms until the autumn of 2025; because the majority of the additional employment support funding will not be in place until the end of the decade; because while acknowledging protection for current claimants, the government has yet to produce its own impact assessment on the impact of future claimants of personal independence payment (Pip) and universal credit limited capability for work and related activity and the number of people, including children, who will fall into poverty or experience worsening mental or physical health as a result, nor how many carers will lose carers allowance; because the government has not published an assessment of the impact of these reforms on health or care needs; and because the government is still awaiting the findings of the minister for social security and disability’s review into the assessment for Pip and Sir Charlie Mayfield’s independent review into the role of employers and government in boosting the employment of disabled people and people with long-term health conditions.
The Liberals Democrats, the SNP, the Greens and the Independent Alliance have also tabled their own reasoned amendments against the bill. They are on the order paper.
Starmer risks defeat on welfare bill as 39 Labour MPs sign up to kill it off, with ‘loads more’ set to join them, rebel says
Good morning. Keir Starmer faces the toughest Commons challenge of his premiership this evening when MPs vote on the universal credit (UC) and personal independence payment (Pip) bill with all commentators confident he will fact a big revolt. He is expected to win – but, on this point, the Westminster commentariat isn’t 100% confident; it looks very tight.
Governments almost never lose votes and there are good reasons for this. One is that they normally have a majority. (Starmer’s working majority is 165.) But the main reason is that the one person who normally has the best intelligence as to how the vote will go is the government chief whip (Alan Campbell in this administration) and if the chief whip isn’t confident that they have the numbers, ministers will offer last-minute concessions. Starmer has already offered concessions worth around £3.3bn on this bill, but there’s a good chance we might get more during the debate – perhaps relating to when the new Pip rules recommended by the Stephen Timms review next year will start applying.
So Starmer should win. But he has not won yet, and this morning there is fresh evidence that it is going to be very close.
Meg Hillier, the Labour chair of the Treasury committee, has withdrawn the reasoned amendment to kill the bill that was signed by more than 120 Labour MPs. But overnight Rachael Maskell has tabled another, very similar reasoned amendment that would have the same effect. It has been signed by 39 Labour MPs – not enough to overturn Starmer’s majority on their own – but in an interview on BBC Breakfast this morning she claimed that “loads more” Labour MPs supported her. When it was put to her that 39 Labour MPs was not enough, she replied:
There are loads more, loads more … I engaged with so many people yesterday that were saying, ‘I’m not signing a reasoned amendment, but I am voting down the bill.’
There is no guarantee that Maskell’s reasoned amendment will be called. If the Conservative party had tabled one, that would normally have taken precedent, but they haven’t. The Speaker, Lindsay Hoyle, could decide to call none of the reasoned amendment, and just go straight to a yes/no vote on the bill. But that would not make much difference, because all the Labour MPs who would vote for Maskell’s amendment would presumably vote against the bill too.
This morning Sam Coates, the Sky News deputy political editor, told his Politics at Sam and Anne’s podcast that one of the rebels told him last night that they expected 68 Labour MPs to vote against the bill, with 30/40 abstentions. Coates said 68 votes against, and 30 abstentions, would wipe out Starmer’s majority by one. That was not necessarily the expected outcome, Coates said, because things could change during the day.
And in their London Playbook briefing for Politico, Sam Blewett and Bethany Dawson report on this exchange with a Labour official.
Cool heads are not prevailing: One Labour official texted POLITICO’s Dan Bloom last night: “The heat has clearly gotten to the PLP — who are about to shoot themselves in the head and then attempt to blame the same people who got them elected for blood being everywhere.”
Here is our overnight story by Jessica Elgot and Pippa Crerar.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: Keir Starmer chairs cabinet.
11.30am: Rachel Reeves, chancellor, takes questions in the Commons.
Noon: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
After 12.30pm: Liz Kendall, work and pensions secretary, opens the debate on the UC and Pip bill.
7pm: MPs vote on the bill.
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